The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) is expected to end 2023 with a closing index of 6,500.
According to a market analyst, the PSEi may reach 6,500 by the end of the year if there is a boost in economic activity.
During a recent BusinessWorld roundtable discussion, BDO Capital and Investment Corp. President Eduardo V. Francisco expressed his satisfaction if the market could attain the 6,300 to 6,500 level.
The PSEi’s closing on the final trading day of 2022 is expected to be approximately 1-4% lower than 6,566.39.
On October 27, the PSEi ended at 5,961.99, which is 0.94% lower than the previous day’s close. This benchmark index has experienced a 9% decrease since the start of 2023.
the fourth quarter
According to Mr. Francisco, stock investors may become optimistic if there is an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third and fourth quarters.flation eases.
According to him, if the gross domestic product experiences a 6% growth in the third quarter and we are able to lower inflation and manage it, then there will be an increase in market optimism.
The data for GDP in the third quarter will be made available on November 9th.
second quarter, the economy of the Philippines expanded by 4.3%, marking its slowest growth in two years.fi
In the first half, the average GDP growth rate was 5.3%.
The GDP needs to grow by at least 6.6% in the latter half of the year in order to meet the 6-7% goal set for this year, according to economic experts.
Headline inflth consecutive month of
In September, the acceleration rate rose for the second consecutive month to 6.1%, making it the 18th month in a row.th consecutive month infl
The inflation rate exceeded the BSP’s target range of 2-4%, resulting in a nine-month average increase.fl
The rate of inflation remains at 6.6%, which is higher than the BSP’s predicted rate of 5.8% for 2023.
fficial meeting
The central bank, BSP, officially decided to resume tightening its monetary policies during last week’s meeting. ff-cycle move, amid increasing inflation risks. It cited the need for “urgent monetary action to prevent supply-side price pressures from inducing additional second-round effects and further dislodging inflation expectations.”
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It is expected that the local market will reach the 7,000 level before the end of the year, which is a significant achievement.
“It is quite challenging to reach the 7,000 level due to low volumes and lack of foreign presence. The locals have been the main supporters of the market, but there is a dearth of positive news and activity,” he stated.
According to Mr. Francisco, there are no significant changes happening in the stock market as the year comes to a close.
By the end of September, data from the PSE revealed a 9.6% decrease in the average daily value traded at P6.6 billion, while the total market capitalization increased by 0.9% to P16.7 trillion.
As of the end of September, foreign investors have divested a total of P43.8 billion in Philippine stocks. The increase in US interest rates in the last year has decreased the appeal of emerging market stocks to foreign investors.
According to R.M.D. Ochave, the local stock market will still remain strong even without the presence of foreign investors.