Tuesday, May 28, 2024

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Additional nights without sleep at the Palace


the United States

This article is a continuation of our piece from yesterday about the Philippines making headlines in the United States.fl

We have been chosen as the new GlobalSource Partner for the Philippines for the month of September. Our colleague Romy Bernardo, who is now a member of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Monetary Board, asked us to take on this role. In exchange for our contribution to understanding the Philippine economy and politics, Romy offered us a bottle of mineral water. We hope to assure potential foreign investors that our country has stable public policy and political leadership, and that our economic management is well-informed and profound. It is not our commentaries or those of others that will attract foreign investments, but the actual demonstration of competent and effective governance by those in power..

the order of

A prime example is within the arrangement offlation management.

the 2021 World Population Data Sheet is

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported a troubling statistic yesterday, revealing that the Philippines has the highest population growth rate in the 2021 World Population Data Sheet.fl

The September inflation rate was 6.1%. This indicates that it is slightly higher than the August rate.fl

The percentage change was 5.3%; additionally, it maintained the average for the year-to-date.f

The inflation rate is 6.6%, significantly higher than the typical range of 2-4%.fl

The objective of the National Government (NG) is to achieve a 5.8% growth rate, according to the recent BSP prediction. Additionally, if this pattern continues, the decline in real GDP to 4.3% that was observed in the second quarter may persist.nd the current quarter,

The trend is expected to persist in the upcoming quarter as it has in the current quarter.fl

Reducing spending and discouraging investment.

the momentum seems to not be stopping.

The momentum does not appear to be slowing down. The month-to-month trend in momentum also shows no signs of stopping.fl

The rate of growth indicated by the PSA report is 1.1%, which, when extrapolated to a yearly basis, equates to a 13% increase.flation. To be sure, the breakdown of the infl

The failure of governance in controlling can be seen as a reflection of the dynamics of the situation.flation is concerned.

this year is

The primary factor behind September of this year isfl

The main contributor to the nation’s progress was the significant growth in the food and non-alcoholic beverage category, with a near double-digit increase of 9.7%. This group makes up 38.34% of the consumer basket. The domestic increase of 6.1% was largely driven by this category.fl

In September, the contribution of retail trade was 61%, which is equivalent to a 3.7 percentage point increase. The industries of restaurants and accommodation services also had a 11.4% share, equivalent to a 0.7 ppt increase.
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Lastly, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels make up 8.6% or 0.5 percentage points (ppt).

the year 2015

In 2015, the main contributor to food consumption was rice.flword

In September, the increase was 17.9%, significantly higher than the previous month’s 8.7% rise.fl

Addressing the significant issue with the shortage of supplies and the inability to sufficiently import them.fi

The government has not successfully tackled the issue of land use and agricultural productivity, as evidenced by the constant efforts to combat hoarding and promote crop growth. Additionally, there is a lack of action towards addressing the issue of rice supply before the harvest season.fi

Steering related to this essential commodity would have minimal effects; the rice shortage is not a matter of enforcing laws. It is a matter of making wise decisions and managing effectively. Implementing price controls and rejecting the suggestion to temporarily lower rice tariffs would not address the issue.ff

Unfortunately, this did not provide any assistance. Rice has now become unattainable for numerous regular citizens in the Philippines, leaving them feeling left out at this point.

the list

The issue with the other item on the list.fl

The increase in housing prices can be attributed to inadequate public policies. The growing population has created a higher demand for housing, leading to a shortage of supply. The Philippines faces a paradox with water – there is a lack of access when needed, but an excess of it during times of no need. Stronger public policies could have resulted in the construction of more dams, water storage facilities, and irrigation systems. The valuable resource of Malampaya gas was not utilized efficiently.fi
The assets and all the monetary funds linked to it.

What is the response of Filipino civil society?

The outcome of the Pulse Asia Survey conducted from Sept. 10-14 was conclusive.

Marcos Jr., the current President of the Philippines, experienced a significant decrease in his approval rating due to rising consumer prices, which weakened his support among his base. In a survey of 1,200 individuals, 65% approved of his performance, a decline of 15 percentage points from the previous poll in June where 80% approved. This is despite his pledge to lower the price of rice to P20 per kilo.

The citizens of the Philippines are requesting a receipt.

They give wholesale ratings. The decrease in approval was not only seen in the President, but also in the Vice-President. Additionally, the heads of important government agencies did not gain the trust of the public.

other words,

This trend is unlikely to change in the near future.fl
The possibility of continuation could persist until the end of the year or even into early next year. The potential for positive outcomes is significant and cannot be dismissed as insignificant.

our coding, we have added a new feature that allows users to save their progress.

We have recently implemented a new function in our code that enables users to save their progress.flation outturn, and the BSP’s elevated infl

Based on our predictions for this year and the following year, we anticipate that there will not be any changes to the current monetary policy. The BSP acknowledged in their press conference in September that there are still significant risks present. These include the possibility of increased fuel prices, leading to higher transportation and food costs. The ongoing El Niño drought could further worsen the already unfavorable price situation. Additionally, many regional productivity and wage boards have approved requests for wage increases, leading to secondary effects that are already taking effect.

-target range

If all the potential risks occur, it is possible that the projected 3.5% forecast for 2024 could exceed the target range of 2-4%. fl meeting is at

At the upcoming meeting, we are observing that the October meeting will take place at the designated time. fl

If the trend continues, the BSP will need to be prepared to make adjustments of 25 to 50 basis points, particularly in core inflation.fl

The activity experiences a resurgence.

Clearly, the Pulse Asia Survey and the latest inf

The evidence of a high ecological impact suggests that there are significant issues with the inadequate handling of resources.flation in the Philippines.

On infl

Based on the current projections, it seems that the expectations of analysts and forecasters align with those of the BSP for this year. However, there has been a slight change in the past two months.flation trend might help de-anchor them. Most of them were quite on the low side of the BSP’s forecast range. While monetary policy could inspire better prospects, the non-monetary interventions are failing miserably.

Yes, headline infl

The core of the situation remains driven by supply.fl

The current levels of inflation are being maintained, but those in charge of policy should strive to not make the same mistake as last year. Supply disruptions should not be disregarded as temporary. As seen, they can have a longer-lasting impact with significant follow-up effects.ffects.

fi

All financial institutions lowered their expectations for economic growth in the current and upcoming year.

The main idea is that the economy is still expanding, which means that monetary policy still has room to fight against inflation, and the National Government must also contribute to improving supply.

We remember that the President expressed his worry about increasing prices last year, stating that they were causing him to lose sleep. Since then, prices have remained high. However, it is important to note that high inflation not only affects the President’s sleep, but it can also hinder economic growth and diminish public confidence.fidence.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.